Mediterranean Europe and the Maghreb: Are migration flows determined by differences in population structure?

Fernando Gil Alonso, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics
Andreu Domingo, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Jordi Bayona, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

This paper aims to analyse and contribute to the debate on the differences in population structure between countries as a demographic determinant of migratory flows between them, taking the Mediterranean as an example. To this end, the recent evolution of the population structure in Southern European Mediterranean countries and that of the Maghreb ones, together with the main population projections for the next 50 years will be compared. Taking “replacement migration” and “demographic dividend” theories as starting point, we include other socio-demographic factors like the evolution of education levels by sex and age cohorts. By doing this, the paper aims to quantify social and population structure differences, observe their incidence on the migration flows from South Mediterranean countries to North Mediterranean ones, and analyse their future progression taking into account both official population projections and the recent evolution of events during the first years of the 21st Century.