Tempo effect in first marriage table: Japan and China

Kiyosi Hirosima, Shimane University

The postponement of or retreat from marriage has been the predominant factor of fertility decline in East Asian region. People are increasingly aware of the need of most precise measurement of marriage decline. As Bongaarts and Feeney argued, the quantum of vital events calculated by the life table at certain time is also influenced by tempo change of the occurrence of the events of cohorts. This paper provides, first, a theoretical explanation of the tempo effect in the quantum by the life table in a clearer way than has been previously provided, and an examination of the way to adjust this influence. Second, it provides an application of these theoretical examinations to the first marriage data of Japan and China (Taiwan) and examine the effectiveness and the practicability of the theory.