Fertility transition at INDEPTH sites in the developing world: evidence from the health and demographic surveillance systems in Asia and Africa

Jean-Christophe Fotso, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
William Muhwava, Africa Centre
Clifford O. Odimegwu, University of the Witwatersrand
Abdur Razzaque, ICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population Research
Ayaga A. Bawah, INDEPTH Network
Rhoune Adhiambo Ochako, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)

(On behalf of the INDEPTH Fertility Group.) Paper uses data from 25 health and demographic surveillance system sites in 12 countries in Africa and Asia to: a) examine and levels and trends in fertility, b) describe the patterns of fertility at the sites in order to situate sites within the transition. Eight sites from Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Burkina Faso may be consider as high fertility sites (TFR of about 5 plus); seven others from Ghana, Kenya, Burkina Faso, Uganda, and are medium fertility sites (TFR between 3 and 5); while eight others from Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Africa may be considered as low fertility sites (TFR below 3). One site in Vietnam clearly has replacement level fertility. An obvious discernible pattern is that the low fertility sites are mostly in Asia, except for South Africa. It is important to note however, that the analysis show that rate of decline vary across the sites.