Below-replacement fertility in East Asia: patterns, factors and policy implications

Noriko Tsuya, Keio University
Minja K. Choe, East-West Center
Feng Wang, University of California, Irvine

This paper examines the patterns, factors, and policy implications of ongoing fertility decline to below replacement levels in East Asia, focusing on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and urban China. While many Western countries and countries in Southeast Asia have also been experiencing below-replacement fertility, the decline in East Asia is notable in its magnitude. While the timing and tempo of decline differ among countries, dramatic drop in East Asian fertility to very low levels has resulted in rapid population aging and foreshadow dramatic population decline. The paper first looks at the trends and patterns of changes in fertility as well as changes in marriage and marital fertility, the two major direct determinants of fertility, in postwar East Asia. Next, we examine the social and economic factors associated with fertility and nuptiality changes, such as education, employment, and gender relations at home. The paper concludes with discussions of policy implications.