Fertility and happiness in the XXI century: institutions, preferences, and their interactions

Francesco C. Billari, Università Bocconi
Hans-Peter Kohler, University of Pennsylvania

In this paper we develop a macro-micro theory of fertility in contemporary advanced societies. In line with the “cultural” approach and with the economic theories of fertility, we argue that, nowadays, individuals have children only as long as this is compatible with their self-fulfillment (happiness). However, what counts in decisions is the expected increase, and this is shaped by the institutional environment individuals live in. New data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) are used to provide an empirical test of the macro-micro theory of fertility. GGS is a comparative survey effort that provides data allowing to have a first assessment of our hypothesis. GGS data, at the moment of the preparation of the present abstract, are available for six countries (Bulgaria, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, and Russia). Italian raw data are available. We expect to be able to add Czech, Norway and Romania to the final analysis.