Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025-2050

Alisson F. Barbieri, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Edson Domingues, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Ricardo Ruiz, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Jose-Irineu Rigotti, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Marco Flávio Resende, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

This paper investigates impacts of climate change scenarios on migration in Brazil’s Northeast Region between 2025 and 2050. The Northeast is the second most populated (28% of the country’s population) and the poorest region, with an extensive semi-dry area. An integrated economic-demographic-climate model combining Population Projection Models, Computational General Equilibrium Model, and the projected climate changes in Brazil (IPCC’s regional A2 and B2 scenarios) creates state- and municipal-level population migration scenarios based on the impacts of climate change on the primary economic sector of the economy and their articulations with the other economic sectors. In addition, the paper discusses how the effects of climate change may create future scenarios of increased vulnerability of some groups living in urban areas (particularly migrants) – can be factored-in to Brazilian public policy and planning, helping to promote prompt and strong action in terms of creation or adaptation of institutional settings at different scales.