Migration transitions and the migration hump: a theoretical inquiry and empirical test

Hein De Haas, Oxford University

Going against popular ideas that development will reduce South-North migration, transitional migration theory and the related migration hump hypothesis predict that constraints-loosening and aspirations-increasing socio-economic development tends to have a J-curve or inverted U-curve effect on net emigration. This hypothesised non-linearity of development-migration linkages is in fundamental contrast with neoclassical and push-pull models and their derived policy recipes to “combat” migration through bolstering development in emigration countries. However, no empirical tests have been put forward to formally test this hypothesis for contemporary world migration. This paper aims to fill this gap by measuring the effect of various development indicators on international migration from developing countries. Drawing on the OECD Database on immigrants and expatriates and the World Bank / University of Sussex global migrant origin database, the analysis distinguishes the effect of development on South-South and South-North migration. The results have fundamental policy implications.