Understanding the changes in the variability of age at death in São Paulo: compression or expansion of mortality?

Marcos Gonzaga, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Carla J. Machado, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

In this paper we analyzed the changes in the mortality pattern in São Paulo (Brazil) from 1980 to 2005, aiming to identifying the effects of these changes on the variability of age at death. We found evidence of a change in the distribution of deaths towards more advanced ages and an increase in the mean length of life of seven years. We observed two different scenarios: first (1980-1995), there was an increase in the variability in the age at death; and second (1995-2005), there was a trend of decreasing the variability. Estimates beyond a given quartile of the death distribution by age indicated that the compression of mortality took place in the whole period. For males, however, the variability of age at death was lower than for females.