Forecasting fertility by using data mining techniques on 1993, 1998 and 2003 Turkey demographic and health survey data

Yadigar Coskun, Hacettepe University
Mehmet Necati Ozdeniz, Population Association (Turkey)

Turkey has a long history of nationwide demographic and health surveys starting with Turkey Population Study at 1963. Till to Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) 2003, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies carried out 8 surveys related on Demography and Health. Last 3 of these surveys are part of Demographic and Health Surveys Program. With this study, TDHS-1993, TDHS-1998 and TDHS-2003 data are evaluated with data mining techniques to create models to describe the reproductive behaviors of the women focusing on the induced abortion. The socio-demographic characteristics of the women and lifetime reproductive events are going to be used for the construction of the models to understand the decision of induced abortion. By using TDHS-1993 and TDHS-1998 data, decision tree and segmentation models are planned to be established with data mining algorithms. The validity of the models is going to be calculated on TDHS-2003 data.