Demographic transition as a pathway to achieving Yemen's MDGs

Imelda Zosa-Feranil, Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA)
Sarah Clark, Futures Group International

While many developing countries have transitioned to low population growth, Yemen still grows at 3% annually, as fertility remains high while mortality has declined moderately. A 2004 survey estimated TFR at 6.2 compared to 4.6 desired number of children, modern contraceptive use at only 13% but unmet need is 50% (Clark, 2007). An estimated 42% of the total population is poor, with majority living in rural areas. Given its low standing on various health, education, employment, gender, and employment indicators, Yemen faces development challenges much greater than most Arab countries. The country’s 2003 MDG Report raised questions about the country’s ability to meet targets such as poverty, child and maternal mortality reduction, and environmental sustainability. Although family planning is not an MDG, this paper used Spectrum projection models to demonstrate that fertility reduction – mainly by meeting the unmet need for family planning - will help Yemen achieve its MDGs.