An expert’s knowledge –based framework for probabilistic national population forecasts: the example of Egypt

Huda Alkitkat, Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC)

During the last decades many studies produced population projections for Egypt using three assumptions of variants (low, medium and high).This approach has many problems: first, most of the decision makers when they find three or five alternatives almost automatically choose the middle one. Second, these projections are deterministic projections which do not give an appropriate indication of the uncertainty. This paper presents the frame work of the first group of probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt 2006-2026 depending on incorporate uncertainties by using a the experts’ knowledge approach.