What contributed to fertility decline in Turkey between 1973-2003?

Pelin Cagatay, Hacettepe University

One of the signficant demographic issues in Turkey in recent years is the rapid and sustained decline of fertility, especially since late 1970s. The primary objective is to explicate the determinants on fertility as regards Bongaarts and Coale model. Besides, a comperative analysis has been conducted between these two based on percentage contribution of nuptiality. The data used for this study have taken from demographic and health surveys conducted between 1973 and 2003. The analyses have been carried out at the national level as well as subnational level and also for education and mother tongue. Findings have shown that contraception has an increasing inhibiting effect between 1973-2003. The reduction of fertility due to marriage is also relatively high especially for the last years. Besides, contribution of marriage estimated by two models have been found to be in line with each other for Turkey as a whole.