Fertility intentions and their realization among Italian mothers

Francesca Rinesi, Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
Sabrina Prati, Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)
Claudia Iaccarino, Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)

The aim of this paper is to investigate the fertility intentions and subsequent outcomes of Italian mothers, as well as to highlight which are the factors that inhibit positive fertility intentions’ realization. The study of fertility behaviour is a critical matter in Italy, where the total fertility rates well below replacement level (1.34) and at the same time, most women still consider two to be the expected number of children. In order to investigate fertility intentions and subsequent behaviour in the short run deterministic record linkage techniques were applied to link the Birth Sample Survey with the births recorded in the Resident Population Registry during the subsequent four years. A piece-wise constant exponential model was computed in order to evaluate the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors on the transition to second child.