The onset of the fourth phase of epidemiological transition : cause-specific mortality trend in theory and in practice in Hungary

Katalin Kovács, Demographic Research Institute, Budapest
László Hablicsek, Demographic Research Institute, Budapest

In terms of the classical epidemiological theory, Hungary represents a "slow variant" of the "semi-western" model - a model, which has not been often studied, yet. This paper examines the mortality developments in Hungary between 1971 and 2007 with special attention to changes in cause-specific pattern, observed or assumed to be important by the classic theory with regard to the onset of the fourth phase. In general, cardiovascular, "healthy life style" related and external causes are of interest. For this model, the survival of some infectious diseases (as overlap between the phases) was also postulated. To test these expectations, time series of cause-specific were calculated by detailed causes and fitted ICD8, ICD9 and ICD10 coding. No evidence for survival or increase of infections was found, including cancers with infectious origin. Cardiovascular mortality has been falling since 1994, as did external causes. Life-style related causes have not decreased.