Recent life expectancy divergence in Baltic countries

Domantas Jasilionis, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
France Meslé, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Jacques Vallin, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

During the last few decades, directions of trends in life expectancy in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were remarkably similar. However, from the year 2000 onwards, the three countries started diverging. Sustainable progress in life expectancy in Estonia contrasts to the worsening trends in Latvia and Lithuania. The contradictory changes seem to be mainly explained by the differences in dynamics in mortality due cardiovascular system diseases, external causes of death, and digestive system diseases. Whereas reductions in cardiovascular and external cause mortality occurred in Estonia and (to less extent) in Latvia, worsening or stagnation in mortality trends were observed in Lithuania. In addition, such negative changes in Lithuania were reinforced by a striking growth in mortality due digestive system diseases. Our paper aims at exploring whether such divergent trends in causes of death may suggest about successes and failures of transformation of health care systems in the three countries.