Spatial analysis of the determinants associated with the changes in the municipal human development index in the state of Minas Gerais. Brazil. 1991-2000

Julio Racchumi, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

The purpose of this work is to analyze the spatial relationship of the determinants that influenced the changes produced in the Municipal Human Development Index of (MHDI) in the State of Minas Gerais between 1991-2000. The method to be used to check the association of the explanatory variables is the spatial statistical analysis. For this spatial analysis it was used the test of spatial auto-correlation determined by the Moran’s Index and spatial regression Conditional Auto Regressive. With the methodology applied, some explanations are found for the changes of the human development in the period being studied. Besides, this technique possibility awards a higher explanatory potential of the analysis MHDI, allowing identifying population groups, risk areas, that permit to guide policies for better conditions of the municipalities. Finally, the study shows that it is possible to make use of the progresses obtained in the area of geo-processing in the areas socials.