Spatial clustering of fertility decline in India

Debasish Nandy, University of Kalyani

India’s fertility is declining and at present the country is experiencing significant demographic transition. The district level pattern of fertility shows robust clustering and its spatial propagation with time. While the role of the socio-economic characteristics in explaining fertility variations have been analysed in detail, limited attention has been given to the role of space behind the rapid change in reproductive behavior. The present paper tries to highlight the importance of spatial factors, employing geo-statistical tools as well as spatial econometric techniques. The regional patterning which is coming out from the analysis brings forth the importance of socio-spatial diffusion in describing the ongoing fertility transition in India. Finally the paper endorses that individuals’ location in the broad spectrum of individual-society-nation is more important than individual capacity building factors in order to describe the process dynamics behind the contemporary fertility decline in India.