Willingness to pay to delay births: comparing stated and revealed preferences among Tanzanian couples

Tamara C. Fox, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation

Individuals' preferences over delaying the birth of their next child by one year are explored using information about their stated preferences collected using contingent valuation. An ordered probability model is used to estimate the distribution of willingnesses to pay to delay childbearing in Tanzania using data from the World Bank's Human Resources Development Survey. This willingness to pay function is used in simulations of the impact improved educational attainment and higher expenditure levels for the poorest households would have on the distribution of willingness to pay. We use the information on willingness to pay to delay births in an analysis of couples' contraceptive decisions, accounting for the willingness to pay to delay births of each member of the couple, comparing stated preferences to revealed preferences in fertility regulation. Husbands and wives preferences are compared, and a relatively high degree of agreement within couples is found.