Population projection by level of education for Egypt 2006 - 2051

Huda Alkitkat, Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC)

This study applies a very powerful demographic methodology—called multi-state population projections—which was developed at IIASA and can model the dynamics of population change not only by age and sex, but also by additional dimensions such as the level of educational attainment. It also considers the fact that women with different levels of educational attainment tend to have different levels of fertility. The analysis is carried out at the national level. The data is based on the 2006 census and the 2000 and 2005 Demographic and Health Surveys. It presents projections of the future size and composition of the population by age, sex, and level of educational attainment using assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration (and how they differ by level of education), as well as future trends in progression to higher educational attainment categories by age and sex, which is closely related to the frequently-used indicator of school enrolment rates.