Revisiting indirect methods based on orphanhood data with micro-simulations

Bruno Masquelier, Université catholique de Louvain

Indirect methods based on orphanhood data have been developed with macro-simulations. They are based on the assumption of population stability and on standard mortality age patterns. Procedures to date the estimates are designed for linearly declining mortality levels. But the spread of HIV-aids and the poor quality of the data introduce biases, and induce a violation of such assumptions. We suggest to use micro-simulation to reassess those biases and errors. The SOCSIM research tool simulates the process of demographic events while keeping trace of kin’s identifiers. The proportion of surviving parents can be observed rather than modeled, which offers much more flexibility. We focus on (1) the size of errors induced by association between fertility and mortality, between orphanhood and child survival, and between sibship size and mortality, as well as declaration errors, (2) the coefficients for estimation in contexts affected by HIV-AIDS, (3) the dating procedure in case of non-linear trends.