Italian fertility above age 30: what is the role played by Italians and foreigners? A decomposition model results

Piero Giorgi, Università di Teramo
Salvatore Strozza, University of Naples Federico II

The recent increase in Italian period fertility may be due to Italian women fertility recovery at higher ages but also to the foreign population fertility. For the years 2001 and 2004 it has been confirmed that foreign women contribute as well to the total fertility increase (Strozza et al. 2007). The aim of the current paper is to investigate the contribution of the foreign fertility to the increase of the proportion of fertility realized above age of 30. Through a decomposition model we disentangle the effect of the Italian and foreign component below and above age 30 on the change of the late fertility indicator. The foreign component below age 30 slows down the increase of late fertility in the North-Centre. In the South prevails the effect of the Italian component, which pushes upwards the late fertility indicator, while the effect of the foreign component is still negligible.