The selectivity of migration and poverty traps in rural Brazil

André B. Golgher, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Pamila Siviero, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

Poverty levels in Brazil present a remarkable spatial heterogeneity and are specifically high in rural areas of the Northeast and North regions. There are different phenomena that may have an impact on regional poverty levels and migration from and to rural areas are among them, in particular due to the selectivity of migration. This selectivity was discussed with a theoretical model, which was based on the Roy and the human capital models, and also empirically, with multinomial logistic models. A general tendency was observed of negative selection for migrants in rural/rural flows and a positive one in rural/urban and longer steps of migration. Policies that diminish the costs of migration would have a positive impact on the range of possibilities for the low-income population strata.