Population and human capital development in Pakistan to 2050

Muhammad Asif Wazir, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Although Pakistani government has emphasized the central role of education for the successful development of Pakistan in the present and future, progress realized at all levels have been meager and this for two main reasons: (1) lack of commitment to the policy goals and unsuccessful implementation, (2) rapid growing of the school age population. This paper proposes to look at the future levels of educational attainment, fertility and population growth for the period 2005-2050 at national as well as provincial levels with four education levels and possibly four scenarios. The methodology is that of multi-state projections (developed at IIASA) based on the various sources (Census 1998, PDHS 2006/07, UN 2006). We will evaluate what could be the contribution of demography to human capital development and/or how they can be mutually beneficial for each other. The research is done in collaboration with Goujon A. IIASA & VID Austria, and Sathar Z. Population Council in Pakistan.