Welfare state context, female earnings and childbearing

Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University
Michaela Kreyenfeld, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Tajana Mika, Research Data Centre, German Federal Pension Insurance

In 1981, the total fertility of Denmark and West Germany equaled 1.4 which was, at that time, the lowest fertility rate in Europe. Since then fertility dynamics in the two countries took a very different development. While West Germany remained a “low fertility” country, Denmark’s fertility rates are nowadays among the highest in Europe. The divergent development in the two neighboring countries is often attributed to different family policy setups. While the German government continued to subsidize the single-earner family model, Denmark implemented policies that helped mothers to combine work and family life. In this paper, we study how female earnings are related to first, second and third birth risks in these two different welfare state contexts. We assume that high female earnings support fertility transitions in Denmark, while they have the opposite impact in Germany. Our study is based on data from German and Danish pension and population registers.