Fertility in Northern Sudan ( 1979-1999): levels, trends and determinants

Mohamed Mahfouz Salih, University of Gezira, Sudan

This paper aims to investigate the trend of fertility in Northern Sudan during(1979-1999), and to address the multiplicity of factors which affect fertility during the same period. The paper is based on data from the Sudan Fertility Survey 1979, the Sudan Demographic and Health Survey 1990 and the Safe Motherhood Survey 1999. During the periods 1975/79 and 1985/90 the TFR has declined by 18.6% from 6.02 live births to 4.90. While during the period 1985/90 and 1995/99 there is no change in TFR. The analysis indicates that changes in marriage are overwhelmingly responsible for the decline during the periods 1975/79 and 1995/99.The decomposition of components of decline in TFR showed that 22.5% of the decline in TFR is attributed to a decrease in proportion married. There has been an increase in age at first marriage. Also the increase in education opportunities seems to be a factor that affects fertility .