Retirement migration among the baby boomers: cohort dynamics and spatial structure in Australia

Nikola Sander, University of Queensland
Martin Bell, University of Queensland

The first of the baby boomers are now approaching retirement. Despite their acknowledged role in shaping demographic behaviour, little attempt has been made to assess the migratory impacts of this impending surge of retirees. We address this deficiency using a database of migration between Australian regions, disaggregated by age, period and cohort, and spatially harmonised over six intercensal periods, 1976 to 2006. A battery of migration indicators are coupled with a Multiplicative Component Model to describe the spatial structure of retirement migration and examine change over time. We employ an Age-Period-Cohort Model to isolate the effect of cohort size on migration intensity. These results provide the basis for alternative scenarios capturing the intensity and spatial structure of retirement migration among the baby boomers, which we evaluate using a multi-regional model. Results suggest an acceleration of metropolitan to coastal retirement streams and intensified population ageing in many destinations.