The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability over the next 20 years

Carol Jagger, University of Leicester
Ruth Matthews, University of Leicester
Adelina Comas-Herrera, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

The numbers of people with dementia are projected to double between 2001 and 2040, in line with continued increases in life expectancy. Projections have failed to account for how changing risk factors might impact on future numbers with dementia or disability. We use a dynamic macro-simulation projection model to calculate the numbers of older people with and without disability to 2026 and explore the impact of dementia treatments to delay onset and functional loss. Transition rates to disability and death conditional on a range of conditions, calculated from MRC CFAS data, were applied to the 1992 E&W population. Ageing of the population alone resulted in 44% more older people between 2006 and 2026 and 86% more with disability. A combination of reduced incidence and disabling consequences alongside improved survival provided the largest reductions in the disabled population (18,000) and numbers cognitively impaired (308,000) compared with ageing of the population alone.