Right on target? A study of realization of fertility intentions using linked survey-register data

Torkild H. Lyngstad, University of Oslo
Kenneth Aarskaug Wiik, Statistics Norway
Turid Noack, Statistics Norway

This paper extends our knowledge about realization of fertility intentions using a unique combination of linked Norwegian survey and register data covering the last 30 year period, with zero panel mortality. Linked together the data provide a very detailed picture of Norwegian women’s fertility intentions and their realization of those intentions from late 1970s up to 2008. The paper will answers three main research questions. First, we ask how powerful reported fertility intentions are as predictors of future behavior, both at the individual and the aggregate level. Second, we ask which social groups are most and least successful in reaching their intended fertility, and in what social contexts such reproductive goals are most easily attained. Finally, we also study whether the likelihood of reaching one’s reproductive target has declined since 1977.