Does child mortality promote progressing to higher parities?

Tavakkol Aghayari Hir, University of Tehran
AbouAli Vedad Hir, Tabriz University
Aliyar Ahmadi, University of Tehran
Mohammad Shiri, university of tehran

Past literature illustrated that child mortality is among predictors of high fertility, debated by Demographic Transition Theory and Replacement Hypothesis. Although this relationship is addressed mostly in aggregate levels, least is known about the relationship at individual level, taking different parities, and especially when considering it in the context of Iran. Using representative samples from 28 Iranian provinces, this paper aimed at investigating effects of survival status of the previous child(ren) on progression to higher parities. To this end, birth histories of around 78,000 Iranian ever-married women of childbearing ages are investigated. The data comes from a nationally representative DHS-type survey conducted in 2000. Comparison of progressions from parity i to i+1 among women with previously dead and living child(ren) show that women with dead children in almost all parities are more likely to move to higher parities. Relative share of child mortality on fertility and policy implications are discussed.