Fertility decline under seemingly unfavourable conditions: a study on the Orissa State of India

Harihar Mr Sahoo, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Orissa, one of the extremely backward states of India with high infant mortality, extreme poverty, low female literacy and very low level of industrialization and urbanization, has shown an impressive fertility decline in the last two decades. This anomaly calls for an in-depth understanding of the fertility transition of the state, in particular of the family building process and fertility differentials. An analysis of the Period Parity Progression Ratios computed from the fertility histories obtained in the National Family Health Survey III shows a high progression up to the second birth, but a gradual decline after that. Results of Multiple Classification Analysis show notable net effects of various socio-economic factors on mean children ever born. Thus, though transition at low levels of socio-economic development suggests a fall in the thresholds for fertility decline from levels presumed to be required in past, the roles of socio-economic factors can not be negated.