Contemporary childbearing trends in low-fertility countries

Tomas Frejka, Independent consultant
Jean-Paul Sardon, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

The proposed paper will contribute to an understanding of the demographic mechanisms underlying contemporary fertility levels and trends and will update earlier findings. It deals with the following questions: What were the period fertility trends of the mid-2000s in each country and were these shaped by quantum or tempo effects? Is the delay of births continuing? What is the pace of birth recuperation? Is the 2-child “family” norm holding up? Are proportions of 1-child families increasing? Are proportions of childless women increasing? The analysis covers about 30 low fertility countries of Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania. Mainly cohort fertility methods are applied. The results will provide answers to the above questions for the respective countries. For those with explicit or implicit policies aimed at raising childbearing the results will show the degree of success or failure.