Special form of Gompertz curve for parametrising fertility experience of Indian female cohorts crossing childbearing age during 1993-2012

Samba Siva Rao Pasupuleti, Indian Statistical Institute
Prasanta Pathak, Indian Statistical Institute

In the present study we have proposed a special form of Gompertz curve whose parameters are easy to interpret and we have used it as a fertility model to study fertility experience of Indian female cohorts who are crossing childbearing age in different calendar years during 1993-2012. We have used all the three National Family Health Survey data sets for this study. The most important findings of the present study are: 1) there is a reduction of 1.4 children (i.e., from 5.55 to 4.15) in completed fertility per female; (2) effective fertility period (length of age interval during which fertility level raises from 5% to 95% of saturation level) is shrinking at the rate of 2 months 24 days per year; and (3) the age of giving birth to half of the children has also decreased by 1.44 years (i.e., from 25.93 years to 24.49 years ) during the period 1993-2012.