The analysis of mortality changes in Poland and selected European countries in the period 1960-2007

Monika A Papież, Cracow University
Sabina A Denkowska, Cracow University

The authors of the paper will present statistical analysis of mortality changes in male and female populations in Poland and selected European countries using historical data from the period 1960-2007. The results obtained will be then used to determine similarities and differences in the dynamics of mortality in the period in question, as well as to explain differences in mortality in Western and Central European countries. The analysis will be conducted on the basis of JPMorgan LifeMetrics toolkit using the following variables: crude central rate of mortality; graduated initial rate of mortality; life expectancy. The data used for the analysis have been obtained from HMD. The van Broekhoven algorithm was applied for smoothing crude mortality rates across different ages. For forecasting mortality in selected countries ”longitudinal” and „cross-sectional” historical simulation will be applied.