Changing sex ratios at birth during the civil war in Tadjikistan: 1992-1995

Sophie Hohmann, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

Sex ratios at birth are known to change during wars or shortly after. We investigated the changes in sex ratios during the civil war that occurred in Tadjikistan shortly after the dismantling of the Soviet-Union. This war was particularly bloody, long lasting, and had many demographic consequences. According to vital registration data, some 27 000 persons died in excess of previous trends during the civil war period (1992-1995), and total mortality was sometimes estimated three times higher by independent observers. Birth rates dropped markedly during the war, and sex ratios at birth increased significantly from 105.0 before the war to 106.8 during the war, to return to baseline values afterwards. The change in sex ratio is investigated according to demographic evidence (delayed marriage, spouse separation), and compared with patterns found in Europe during WW-II, as well as with recent wars in the Middle-East (Iran/Irak and Lebanon/Israel).