Predicting HIV trends to strengthen strategic planning in India: modelling and analysis

Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Indian Statistical Institute
Kurien Thomas, Christian Medical College
Kurapati Sudhakar, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Philip Maini, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

Recent annual estimates of HIV prevalence in India indicate that the growth rate of the epidemic has slowed compared to that of the previous decade. The country is moving towards implementing the third phase of the National AIDS Control Program (NACP III) for controlling the spread of HIV. The targets established by the Government of India for behavioural and therapeutic interventions under NACP III were inserted into a mathematical model developed to predict the HIV incidence. We report that if the targets are reached within by the prevention programs for susceptible and infected, then the number of people living with HIV in India will stabilize during 2007 – 2012. These findings support the strategy that is being proposed by NACP and will be useful to public health planners.