Diffusion effect in fertility decline in China: a study of time-series model at a provincial level

Yan Wei, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics (XAUFE)

Using the cross-section time-series data from 28 provinces in China from 1950 to 2000, the paper analyzes the spatial diffusion and temporal diffusion of fertility decline at provincial level in China. The results reveal that there exists diffusion effect in fertility decline of China. Analysis of spatial diffusion shows that the sustained fertility decline began with a few big cities and provinces located in coastal areas of east China, with northern provinces followed, while the decline happened even later in northwest and south China; analysis of temporal diffusion indicates that determinants of fertility decline vary from period to period and within-provincial fertility decline diffusion shows more remarkable effects than that of cross-provincial diffusion.