Medium-term population projections for India, states and union territories, 2001, 2051

J Retnakumar, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Most of the existing population projections for India and the states are based on 1991 Census base year population. More importantly, the demographic scenario of the states in the country has been undergoing dramatic changes in the recent past. Therefore, population projections for India and the states are by now little out-dated. The present exercise is carried out with a view to fill this gap by incorporating the latest demographic trends of the country for providing an up-dated estimate of India’s future population. The projected results suggest that, the population of India would become 1581 million under high variant and 1549 million under medium variant assumptions by 2051. The absolute size of the population would decline in Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and Punjab from 2041 onwards.