Population dynamics, food/nutrition security and health in Ethiopia: multilevel, contextual factors of vulnerability and resilience

Charles H Teller, Population Reference Bureau (PRB) and Addis Ababa University
Assefa Hailemariam, Addis Ababa University
Tesfayi Gebreselassie, Macro International Inc.
Ali Hassan, Addis Ababa University

Ethiopia has suffered droughts, famines, epidemics, wars, and instability since the 1970s, and 12.4 million are still estimated to be food insecure in 2009. The 2007 census shows population growing at 2.6% annually, reaching 80 million by 2009, while 85% are still rural living on often shrinking, degraded land. Under-five mortality has declined dramatically (122), child stunting declined somewhat but still high (48%), but fertility has remained high (5.5). The paper analyzes the demographic processes contributing to poor nutrition and health in the last 25 years, understanding the context of political, socio-cultural, environmental and economic change. Multilevel and mixed methods demonstrate how macro and micro factors interact and produce vulnerability to these shocks, but at the same time evidence surprising resilience and local capacity of response. Our policy, program and evaluation research document increased access to girls education, health and food safety net programs that may accelerate the demographic transition.