Developing annual population data in the United States: new possibilities for the 21st century

David A. Swanson, University of California, Riverside
Jerome McKibben, McKibben Demographic Research

Small area estimation programs in countries such as the Australia, Canada, and United States, among others, have taken a different direction than those found in the national statistical agencies of many European countries, where population and other registers are used to more effect. In the United States, however, the advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that has not yet been fully tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates and projections for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the US Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each.