Why rainfall variations influence child survival differently in Burkina Faso and Mali? Results from a comparative event-history analysis

Stéphanie Dos Santos, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)

During the last 40 years, the Sahel was facing a long-term downward trend of rainfall over the years. The importance of the ecological variables as factors in child survival in rural subsistence societies has already been emphasized. However, there is little empirical evidence on this topic. This communication presents a comparative event-history analysis to understand how rainfall variations may influence child survival in two countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries present similar contexts in terms of population dynamic, economy, livelihood, child mortality and rainfall conditions (i.e. strong south-north decreasing gradient of rainfall). In addition, in both countries, individual data come from a nationally-representative detailed retrospective survey conducted in 2000 and rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit. A first step has already highlighted how child survival is related to specific patterns of rainfall variations in each country. This communication aims to explain why rainfall variations influence child survival differently in these two countries.