Below replacement fertility in Iran: a district level analysis of 2006 Census.

Akbar Aghajanian, Fayetteville State University
Mitra Mehryar, Research Assistant, Institute for Management Studies
Shirin Ahmad-Nia, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Iran

Below Replacement Fertility in Iran: A District Level Analysis of 2006 Census. Abstract Following a sharp rise in fertility between 1976-1986, Iran has experienced a drastic fertility decline since early 1990s. An analysis of the 2006 census indicates that the process of fertility decline has continued unabated between 1996-2006. Total fertility rate of Iranian couples has dropped to 1.9 and over 80% currently live in provinces with below replacement fertility (TFR <2.1). This paper presents an analysis of fertility levels and pattern across urban and rural areas of the 336 districts (sub-provinces) covered by the 2006 census. Using such indicators of development as urbanization, literacy, access to modern means of communication and a number of health indicators an attempt is made to identify factors underlying district level variations in fertility level in 2006 and its decline since 1996.