Assessing the impact of the stopping rule on sex ratio of last births

Bang Nguyen Pham, University of Queensland
Peter S Hill, University of Queensland
Timothy Aidair, University of Queensland

Despite a wide range of studies on determinants of increased sex ratio of population in Asia, little attention has been given to the role of the stopping rule in human fertility. This paper explores the hypothesis that the stopping rule has an impact on the sex ratio of last births (SRLB). We have developed a new method to quantify such impact and to estimate the SRLB. This method includes a model to measure the parity stop ratios (PSR) at the male and the female last births. The hypothesis is tested using data from the Population Change Survey 2006 of Viet Nam. The stopping rule determines the SRLB of Viet Nam at 127 for the period 1970-2006 and particularly 136.7 for the period 1986-1995. The rule has potential to generate a trend of one son families in the society with son preference, low fertility and access to mordern sex selection methods.

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Presented in Session 43: Two decades of demographic masculinization in Asia: impact and policy response